Speaker Mike Johnson Predicts Republicans Will “Defy History,” Insists the Polls Are Wrong

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House Speaker Mike Johnson predicted Republicans will pull off an upset in Tuesday’s midterm elections, telling a Michigan rally for GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers that the party will “defy history” and win major victories on Election Night, according to Fox News. Johnson argued that polls underestimate Republican enthusiasm and that the close races will come down to turnout. Rogers faces Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in one of the closest Senate races in the country.

Johnson has been making that case for days. “I’m telling you these polls are off, all of them, because they’re using faulty analysis,” he said on Fox News on Oct. 25. “Republicans are no longer responding to polls.” He said he had been “in 21 states, 39 districts just in the last three weeks” and that turnout at his events shows “an excitement level like 2024.”

Details & Background

The polls tell a different story for now. RealClearPolling’s average shows Democrats leading Republicans 51.4% to 43.2% on the generic congressional ballot, according to Al Jazeera, and a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Oct. 26 had Democrats up nine points among likely voters. The Cook Political Report this week shifted about a dozen House races toward Democrats in its final ratings. Republicans hold a narrow 218-214 House majority, and midterm elections have historically gone against the president’s party.

Johnson, who marked three years as speaker last week, has said he intends to keep leading House Republicans and has credited the “extraordinary success” of his tenure to a “total TEAM effort.” “I intend to lead as Speaker,” he told CBS News earlier this month, adding that “in the unlikely scenario where we lost the majority,” he would expect colleagues to ask him to keep leading the conference. GOP lawmakers told Fox News Digital that Johnson would likely step aside if Republicans lose the House.

Reactions

Johnson described how he tests the polls at his events. “When I’m in these big arenas, Shannon, I ask for hands,” he told Fox News host Shannon Bream. “Show me your hand if you’ve answered a poll in the last six months, and there will be like three hands among 300 people.” He has also argued that Democrats’ leftward shift would “juice enthusiasm” for Republicans, warning, “This is not our father’s Democrat Party.”

Analysts are more skeptical. Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball said, “A big Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling suggests that the House is almost certain to flip to Democrats,” while calling the Senate “much more up in the air.” Early voting has surged, with more than 43 million ballots already cast, about 10 million more than at the same point in 2022, according to an AP analysis. An Economist/YouGov poll found 44% of registered voters expect Democrats to win the House, compared with 31% for Republicans.

Why This Matters to You

Control of the House decides who sets the agenda in Washington: which bills get a vote, which investigations get launched and whether President Trump’s priorities move forward. A Democratic House would bring subpoenas, hearings and likely gridlock for the final two years of Trump’s term. It would also decide whether Johnson keeps the gavel.

Whether Johnson or the pollsters are right will be settled Tuesday. His message to Republican voters is simple: the outcome is not decided yet, and turnout will make the difference. With millions of votes still to be cast, the speaker is betting that voters who ignore pollsters will show up at the ballot box. Polls have underestimated Republican support in past elections, including Trump’s 2016 and 2024 victories, which is one reason GOP leaders remain hopeful.