AMERICA FIRST: U.S. Sees First Reverse Migration in Decades

President Donald J. Trump has highlighted a significant shift in U.S. immigration trends, noting that the country experienced reverse migration—or net negative international migration—in 2025 for the first time in at least 50 years.

According to a January 2026 analysis by economists at the Brookings Institution, net international migration in 2025 ranged between –10,000 and –295,000. This means more people left the United States than entered it during the calendar year, a historic reversal after decades of consistent net inflows.

The U.S. Census Bureau reported that net international migration peaked at 2.7 million in 2024 before declining sharply to 1.3 million for the period ending July 1, 2025. Projections indicate it could fall further to approximately 321,000 by July 2026 if current trends hold, with some estimates already pointing toward negative territory.

The Trump administration attributes this turnaround to stricter border enforcement and interior policies. Illegal border crossings (U.S. Border Patrol apprehensions) dropped to historic lows in fiscal year 2025, with only 237,538 encounters at the southwest border—the lowest level since the 1970s.

Monthly apprehensions frequently fell below 9,000–10,000, with some months recording as few as 6,000–8,000 crossings. This represents a decline of over 90% from peak levels under the previous administration.

On deportations and removals, the Department of Homeland Security reported more than 605,000–675,000 deportations in 2025 (with some fiscal year figures around 442,000–622,000 for ICE-related actions). Independent estimates, such as from Brookings, placed formal removals closer to 310,000–325,000.

The administration has also claimed 1.9 million to 2.2 million self-deportations (voluntary departures), contributing to a total of over 2.5 million illegal immigrants leaving the country when combined with formal removals. These figures include incentives offered through the CBP Home app, though independent analyses suggest the self-deportation numbers may be lower.

The foreign-born population in the U.S. declined noticeably. Pew Research Center data showed it fell from 53.3 million in January 2025 (about 16% of the total population) to 51.9 million by June 2025—a drop of more than 1 million in six months, with the decline likely continuing.

This net negative or near-zero migration affected every state, the District of Columbia, and the vast majority of counties and metropolitan areas. Net international migration declined in 90% of U.S. counties, with all metro areas seeing reduced rates compared to the prior year.

Administration officials point to tangible benefits, including reduced pressure on housing, schools, and public services, as well as more job opportunities for American workers. They describe the shift as correcting years of policies that led to record-high encounters exceeding 2 million annually in prior years.

Critics and some economists note potential downsides, such as slower labor force growth in sectors like agriculture, construction, and hospitality, and possible impacts on overall GDP and consumer spending. However, the White House maintains that prioritizing American citizens and legal residents remains the core focus.

For 2026, Brookings projects net migration could range between –925,000 and +185,000, with negative territory still likely depending on continued enforcement. The Census Bureau and Congressional Budget Office have similarly revised projections downward significantly.

Overall U.S. population growth slowed to just 1.8 million (0.5%) between July 2024 and July 2025, the slowest rate since the early COVID-19 period, largely due to the drop in net international migration.

Data sources for these figures include the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 population estimates, Brookings Institution modeling, Department of Homeland Security and CBP encounter statistics, and Pew Research Center analysis. Note that exact net migration numbers involve some estimation uncertainty, as the U.S. does not track every departure comprehensively.

This reverse migration trend represents a sharp departure from the steady positive net inflows that characterized U.S. demographics for decades prior to 2025. The administration continues to emphasize border security and enforcement as key drivers of these results.